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By Ehichioya Ezomon
We return this week to the hot-button issue of the presidency of Nigeria, particularly as it relates to the South-East geopolitical zone, which is home to the Igbo.
The last piece on “Rotation and South-East quest for presidency” essentially dealt with alternating the highest political office, between the North and South of the country, in every eight years of two terms of four years each.
It weighed the South-East clamour against the reported scheming of the North – and why does it want – to retain power in the region, after the completion of President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure in 2023.
The “rotation” principle isn’t constitutional, but a mechanism hammered out by political actors to ensure “even” spread of political power to all sections of Nigeria.
Because it’s not grounded in law, but the convenience of politicians, some sections of the country may take undue advantage to deny other areas the fruits of the presidency.
Accordingly, the debate in the polity is premised on the North’s push to retain power. But this pursuit clashes with the desire of the South-East to assume the presidency, for the first time, based on a general election.
Thus, the instant analysis switches from rotation to “zoning” of the presidency, with the assumption that in 2023, all things being equal, the office will return to the South, where the question of zoning will definitely rear its head.
We’re employing rotation here to mean “a regularly recurring succession , as of people performing a jo b,” while zoning will be an allocation of that job or position to a zone (e.g., to any of the zones in the North or South).
Like rotation, zoning has no constitutional or legal backing in Nigeria, but a conventional creation by politicians, who, if they agree that power should shift (rotate) to either North or South, it’s said to be zoned to that region.
So, if transferring power to the South is “accomplished,” how will zoning affect the search by the South-East to present the Nigerian president in 2023?
Being not a law, and not binding on political actors, any of the three zones of the South – South-East, South-South and South-West – can canvass to produce the president under any of the registered political parties.
For the South-East to get the slot, the powerful players in the political parties must, with the consent of the other two zones – South-South and South-West – agree to “micro-zone” the presidency to the South-East.
Currently, only two political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – have the wherewithal to field formidable candidates for the presidency.
This dynamic could change by 2023, but those scheming, and forecasting for the presidency are doing so on the platforms of the APC and PDP, respectively.
In pushing the argument further, let’s consider how the three zones of the South have fared in terms of the number of times, if any, each zone has presented a candidate that won the the presidency, and the political leaning of the zones.
The South-West, under the PDP, presented Dr. Olusegun Obasanjo twice, in 1999 and 2003, and he won on both occasions, and occupied the presidency for eight unbroken years, from 1999 to 2007.
On the same platform, the South-South presented Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, and he won and occupied a single term of four years. His bid for re-election in 2015 was thwarted by the victory of General Buhari of the APC.
Taking our compass from 1999 when democracy returned to Nigeria, the South-East hasn’t presented a candidate that won the presidency in either the APC, PDP or any other political party.
That’s why the sentiment, aligning with the doctrine of fairness and equity, favours the South-East “to be allowed” by major actors in the political parties to field candidates for the presidency in 2023.
But this can only succeed via a combination of factors, chiefly, the political leaning of the zone, its unity of purpose, and ability to woo the South-South and South-West to allow micro-zoning of the seat to the South-East.
This, in itself, presents another hurdle, as especially the APC and PDP will consider the zone’s political leaning since 1999 against the possible interest shown by the South-West and/or South-South for the presidency in 2023.
Save the alleged “hawks” under its belt in other zones, the APC should be the easiest route to the presidency for the South-East, given that President Buhari will complete his tenure in 2023.
This presupposes that as the ruling party, the APC should cede the seat to the South-East, for it to ride on the back of incumbency to victory at the polls.
But there’s a snag! The APC has met with abysmal electoral returns in the South-East since its inception in the 2015 election cycle. What’s the guarantee that it will fare better if it fields a South-easterner as candidate in 2023?
Although the party’s fortunes are enhanced in the South-South, it has recorded resounding victories in the South-West, both in national and sub-national elections.
So, the argument is: Why will the APC reward “failure” in the South-East rather than the South-West that’s the bulwark of its formation in 2013, and subsequent electoral contests?
Besides, if the APC fields a candidate from the South-East, will the “deciders” of the political leaning of the zone cease their open aversion to, and rhetoric against the APC and President Buhari?
Or will they, as they did in the 2015 and 2019 general elections, cast their lot with the PDP even if it (PDP) fields its candidate from the North? Such speculations preceded the 2019 polls.
Recall that the South-East reportedly raised the matter of the 2023 presidency with the candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, wanting him to commit to “only one term” in office if elected president in the 2019 election.
The former Vice President allegedly didn’t give the inquisitors a positive response, indicating that whatever the outcome of the 2019 presidential race (whether he won or lost), he could throw his hat into the ring in 2023. Yet, the South-East supported him almost 100 per cent in the 2019 polls.
Beyond Atiku, the PDP can decide to field its candidate from the North, to “stand a chance” at the election, thereby undercutting the South-East’s opportune moment for the exalted position.
That’s why the South-East must perfect its homework of getting the South-South and South-West on its side, to checkmate any ploy of a “no-Southern-cohesion” to deny it the presidency.
And the time for a Southern solidarity is now. Calling other zones names, and shouting “it’s our turn to be president” are no strategies for attaining the “age-long” desire. The “magic” is in behind-the-scenes manoevres, based on give-and-take, mutual trust and respect!
* Mr. Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.
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