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The 2019 preidential election is near and it is an open secret that of the 72 eligibile presidential candidates that made the final list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, only two contenders are generally believed to be in contest.
They are President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party.
Judging from political leanings, permuatations and several outcomes of decisions made by the two candidates and their parties, it’s never too late to analyse the posibility of victory for either of the candidates.
Though Atiku may not be as popular as Buhari, he [Atiku] is not entering this contest as a complete unknown politician who must build his identity from scratch. For a long time, he has consistently touted himself for the highest political office [The Presidency] and this among other reasons today sets him as the major clog in the wheel of Buhari’s presidential re-election bid.
Atiku’s campaign was tainted at its inception with ‘corruption’ allegations from the ruling government and this factor is what several critics had earlier considered before labeling the former vice president as the weaker candidate. However, Atiku’s astute campaign handlers changed the narratives to issue-based and this strategy has earned Atiku/Obi to win an overwhelming sympathy of the electorate, ethnic groups and international bodies
The big question on the lip of everyone is…Can Atiku defeat Buhari? We may not be able to emphatically answer this question but here’s a breakdown of some of the high-profile factors that we feel may see Atiku emerge the next president of Nigeria.
Suspension of Onnoghen:
One of the most recent happening that swayed the attention of the global community as well as triggered negative perception about the Buhari’s relection bid was the Suspension of Chief Justive of Nigeria, Chief Walter Onnoghen.The PDP acted smart, they brought back the dictator toga and wore it on Buhari. To justify its argument that the Buhari administration doesn’t deserve to remain in office beyond 29 May, 2019, the opposition released hundreds of statements in which Buhari was referred as ‘Gen. Buhari’ and this built hate for the PMB brand among electorate, especially in the Southern part of Nigeria where Onnoghen hails.
While debates over the propriety or otherwise of the suspension of the CJN has continued among politicians, lawyers and other interested groups have continued in and outside the courts, Atiku latched into controversies to impugn the integrity of his main opponent in the 2019 president election in a letter he wrote to the Ambassadors of the European Union, United States, European Union and the United Kingdom High Commissioner in Nigeria on Tuesday, 29 January titled: Constitutional Breaches Under Buhari’s Watch, catalogued what he described as instances of President Buhari serial “breaching the provisions of our constitution and undermining organs and institutions of State in order to advance his personal interest.”
The suspension of Onnoghen topped the list of the petition sent to the representatives of the foreign mission in Nigeria by the PDP presidential candidate who said his action was intended to goad the international community to pile pressure on the Buhari government “to desist from these violations and ensure a level playing field for the general elections that are only a couple of weeks away.” Even then, Atiku’s entreaties in the letter that “The choices facing all of us is either to stand aside and watch Nigerians reelect a president who has been in constant violation of the laws of the land without remorse; or to show him the way out and elect a true democrat,” barely disguised his appeal for support from the foreign envoys in his battle against Buhari.
Kwankwaso factor in Kano
Coming secong to Lagos on the lists of states with highest registered voters, Kano’s 5,457,747 registered voters is one of political grounds where President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to get some his big votes. However, unlike 2015 where buhari faced a Southern extraction, Jonathan the PDP Presidential candidate [Atiku] in 2019 is a Muslim and a Northerner like Buhari, and this has scaled down the advantage of President Buhari .
More unfortunate is the role of Sen. Rabiu Kwanwwaso. Atiku’s appointment of Senator Kwankwaso to take charge of his campaign in the North-West Zone is well conceived. No matter what is said about the political excesses of the former governor of Kano State, he has garnered a huge followership, which if deployed in favour of Atiku’s bid in the state, would make a meaningful difference.
The massive PDP rally flown on the wings of Kwankwaso has been a political game changer. Kano which was once percieved as a hotbed for the Buharists is no longer what it seems to be. Kwankwaso presence has reawakened the PDP in Kano and ithis will help Atiku’s candidacy a great deal.
Restructuring and Fiscal Federalism
In as much as the Buhari-led government tried to downplay the essence of restructuring, it has been a big debate among the different ethnic groups in Nigeria.
About two years after his tough lecture on the state of the nation, tongues are still wagging. Many Nigerians believe that his standpoint on the vexed issues on restructuring and fiscal federalism are timely wake up call, and will form a major part of the issues that will shape campaigns for the nation’s most coveted political position in 2019.
Being that a man of Atiku’s standing was the one canvassing for ‘resource control’ made a lot of difference within the context of power alignments.
He has consistently argued that, Nigeria as currently constituted as an entity is rooted in corruption, impunity and injustice and thus must be reconstituted.
According to him, political and civic leaders from across the country must come together, discuss, negotiate and make the necessary compromises and sacrifices needed to restructure our federation to make the nation a stronger, more united, productive, and competitive country.
His contention is that there is a flaw in the country’s constitution which was why there is a recurring cry of marginalization from every section of the country. Atiku believes that no section of Nigeria can claim correctly that its people are better served by the current structure of our federation.
He has since challenged those who are against restructuring the country’s federal system as it currently stands, to show an example of countries that are functioning well with a structure such as Nigeria.
Whatever one’s arguments are, restructuring is one of Atiku’s selling points.
Block votes from S-East/ S-South: Strongholds of the PDP.
The Igbo are one of the major ethnic groups of Nigeria, who despite having the wherewithal: numerical strength, industry, education, wealth, ingenuity, etc, yet, lack the desired accomodation in Nigerian politics.
The President, Ohanaeze, Nnia Nwodo among other Igbo leaders takes the inclusion of Obi into the Atiku’s bid seriously. In fact, Ndigbo have been urged to embrace and vote for PDP presidential ticket and bring to a happy end, the age long marginalisation of the Igbo nation in the political and economic spheres of the country.
It is the same story in South-South. With leaders like former President Goodluck Jonathan, Rivers State Governor, Nyesome Wike among others, it is obvious this region is a no go area of Buhari.
Waning goodwill of President Buhari
It is no longer news that President Muhammadu Buhari’s approval rating has drastically reduced in the last three years that he has been in office, which informs the belief by political pundits that a run against the president in 2019 posses no political risk.
Indeed NOI Polls, the No 1 country specific polling services for Nigeria has returned a damning verdict on President Buhari’s stewardship, with the results of its poll showing that over the last three years the President’s job performance rating has taken a downward turn for the worse, plummeting from his highest rating of 78 percent and 80 percent recorded in September and October 2015, to 37 percent recorded in August 2016 and more recently 38 percent and 39 percent in the months of February and April 2018 respectively.
In more specific terms, the average approval rating of the president in 2018 stands below average at 39.6 percent; with his latest rating of May 2018 at 41 percent. He did poorly in all areas of assessment. So if 2018 holds the truth for 2019, a well grounded candidate like former Vice President Atiku can confront the president with possibility of electoral good show.
Job creation: Atiku/Obi business record
With statistics showing that a whopping 20.93 million Nigerians lost their jobs under President Buhari-led government, Atiku/Obi’s campaign which dwelt on job creation became the toast of the day.
Today, Atiku is seen as the the God sent Job creating machine. As pstated by his campaign organisation, Atiku has perfected templates for massive job creation and business opportunities for Nigerians, and this they say will immediately take effect if he is elected into office as President.
The Director of Media and Publicity, Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan, in a statement issed in Abuja recently, revealed that the strategic template would also revamp about 24 million businesses crippled by the President Muhammadu Buhari Presidency and put millions of Nigerians, who had lost their jobs,
back to work.
Everyone wants a great paying job, and this is a huge factor that might swing vote for the Atiku/Obi candidacy.