The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis started in Nigeria like a joke; from doubt, gradually to indifference, Nigerians came to full acceptance of the reality of the pandemic, even when some are yet reading conspiracy to it, or some are still ignorant of the global pandemic.
No doubt, COVID-19 is real, and the numbers of confirmed cases being released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) since the outbreak in late February are nothing to joke about.
To help understand the numbers better, and make likely projections, TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) has been observing the figures being released by the NCDC on a daily.
Following analyses, certain patterns have been revealed, which will form the crux of this report presented by simple infographics. On mobile, kindly use landscape mode to get a clearer view of the infographics.
Timeline of COVID-19 in Nigeria
COVID-19 trend in Nigeria
Based on the timeline of COVID-19 in Nigeria and following how the NCDC released the data of confirmed cases on a daily basis, the figures were plotted on a graph. The outlook of the graph reveals certain patterns of interest.
As of 26 February, the NCDC was yet to release any figure(s) on confirmed cases of COVID-19, meaning as of 26 February, there was zero case of COVID-19 in the country; hence, the curve started from zero.
On 27 February, the very first case of COVID-19 was confirmed, starting an upward trend that is not sustained, and the curve flattened at zero until March 9 when another confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported, and again, the curve flattened at zero until March 17 when another single case was confirmed.
The curve drifted upward on March 18 and dropped on the 19th day of the month, returning to zero on the 20th. The curve rose sharply on the 21st and staggered from 10 cases until a flat curve was sustained for two consecutive days at 16 confirmed cases. A downward-upward-downward trend was observed until a spike was recorded on April Fool’s day. Since then, the curve staggered downward to 5 cases as of April 4th.
COVID-19 spread in Nigeria
COVID-19 projection in Nigeria
Following the Coronavirus trend in Nigeria, for the past 39 days of COVID-19 outbreak, the country recorded an average of 5.5 cases per day. If this tempo is sustained, in the next 39 days, there could be about 500 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country. However, if the average of 16.7 per day in the past seven days is considered, and that tempo is retained for the next 39 days, there could be about a thousand confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country.
Meanwhile, note that by Sunday 29th of March, confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country stood at 111, but by the end of the week, that figure almost doubled, painting a bigger picture of surprises to expect. More also, as the number of confirmed cases increase, the number of deaths should be expected to increase as well.
In the coming days, the trend, therefore, to watch out for of COVID-19 in the country is either the curve will continually rise, continually drop, sustained at a certain number, or stagger, until the curve downs to, and is sustained at zero. When the curve is sustained at zero, it signals the end of the epidemic in Nigeria.
The outlook of COVID-19 might be better in Nigeria compared to what is being experienced in other climes, but the government and citizens must not take it for granted. The government and citizens should prepare for the worse because epidemics are unpredictable.