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The 2019 general elections are underway starting with the presidential election scheduled to hold on Saturday, February 16, 2019.
As its already public knowledge, the two major characters that would largely determine the tenor of the election are President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. This is not to cast aspersions on the candidacy of Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP); Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN) and Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC).
Buhari is running on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) while Atiku is aiming at the top job on the platform of Nigeria’s main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). And from whatever angle one looks at it, none of them is a pushover.
Apart from the fact that both are from the North and muslims, they are major power brokers in their rights. While Buhari would be banking on the incumbency factor and the cult following he enjoys in the North, the former vice president who has been eyeing the presidential seat since 1993 would likely be capitalizing on his experience in power struggle, political sagacity, the mood of the country and his deep pocket.
It is also important to note at this juncture that 2019 is certainly going to be Atiku’s last shot at the nation’s number one job as age would no more be on his side. On November 25, 2019, he will clock 73 and that leaves him with a slim or no chance to contest for the hot seat again.
Buhari, already 76 years would not attempt re-contesting if he losses on Saturday. Already, age is telling on his demeanour, memory and pace/accuracy of spoken words at official events and political rallies. This interestingly makes the election a critical one for both of them.
Presidential elections devoid of religious, tribal sentiments
Unlike previous presidential elections [2003, 2011 and 2015 ], the contest between Buhari and Atiku will be one that cannot be easily framed along the toxic ethnic and religious lines. With this development, it is safe to say the template of the traditional Muslim vs Christian and North vs South sentiments would be put to rest. Both are northerners, Muslims and Fulani.
To ensure victory for their candidates, power brokers all over the country have made public statements on the choice of their candidates between the two top contenders.
Meet Power brokers behind Buhari
President Muhammadu rode on massive support and good will from nearly all the geo political zones to Aso Villa in 2015. Nigerians, in what appeared to be an unprecedented approach voluntarily jettisoned religious, ethnic and other cheap sentiments to support his ambition. He made history by defeating an incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan who despite the tension and temptations to retain power magnanimously called to congratulate his rival even before the final results were announced.
However, while one can say the support base and good will from Nigerians had shrunk to an extent in the last three and half years, the Buhari phenomenon is still a thick force to reckon with in today’s political landscape. This is coupled with the fact that some power brokers would do anything to have the president returned to office come February 16.
Some of them include; the Jagaban Borgu and former Lagos governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; the 24 APC governors; The president’s Chief of Staff and one of the most powerful forces in Aso Rock, Abba Kyari; former governor of Akwa Ibom and Delta States, Godswill Akpabio and Emmanuel Uduaghan, former military governor of Lagos State, Buba Marwa and others.
Power brokers behind Atiku
The PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar is not left out in the power brokerage game as notable leaders have pledged their loyalty to his election. If there was anything the former vice president got right, it was his timely and wise mending of fences with his former boss and ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Obasanjo’s tough stance and open ridicule of his former vice has had a major setback on his presidential ambition. That seems to be in the past now as father and son are now taking shield under same umbrella.
Atiku is a regular name and face in the Nigerian political landscape dating back to over 20 years. His decision to run did not come as a surprise to many. However, his steady calculations and acceptability in some quarters despite the ‘corruption’ tag is still mystery to some.
At the moment, he seems to be enjoying smooth relationships with all the aggrieved members/leaders of the ruling APC who have now found a new home in the PDP. His endorsements also transcends religious and tribal barriers.
Barring any last minute change of plan (considering the unpredictable nature of Nigerian politicians), Atiku is in the good books of the following power brokers and groups;
Former Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Olusegun Obasanjo, top retired generals (IBB, TY Danjuma, Aliyu Mohammed Gusau and others), Senate President and Director General of the PDP presidential campaign, Dr. Bukola Saraki, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara, the PDP governors, former governors Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa).
Others are; Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), a faction of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Afenifere and others.
Atiku’s landslide victory is not negotiable if…
Speaking in an exclusive interview with TNG, a former governor and top echelon of the PDP who does not want to be named said the party’s assurance of victory in the February 16 polls was clear to all who care to see.
According to him, the only impediment is if the ruling APC resort to rigging and the electoral umpire, INEC compromised its stand on conducting a free and fair poll.
In his words: “If it’s free and fair, then its landslide victory for us. There is general apathy in the land. People are not happy, the security situation is bad, unemployment, etc.
Even in their perceived stronghold, the North Central, the security situation there has deteriorated. You know for sure that the South South and South East are 100% PDP.
He however expressed a divergent view on the voting pattern in South West considering the promise and political calculation that if the president (a northerner) is allowed a second term, that marks the completion of their (Northern) zone for the presidency. Power can then shift to the West. Electing Atiku may disrupt the plan as he (Atiku) may also seek a second term thus elongating the North’s grip on the presidency.
“For South West we are not so sure of their voting pattern because of the thought and political calculation that Buhari should be allowed to finish his term to pave way for a South West president in 2023,” he said.
Speaking further on the PDP’s chances in the North and West geopolitical zone, he said: The battleground is basically the North and West. Even in that North, the Middle Belt is going with PDP, Kano might not be that easy for them (the APC) as it was in 2015 because of Kwankwaso’s factor. You all saw the PDP’s impressive rally in the state. The crowd there was massive and unprecedented. That means PDP will also put up a strong fight there. We can get a 50% of the votes in Kano. Sokoto and Kaduna will also be shared. Lamido will put up a good show for the PDP in Jigawa.
Governor Damkwambo’s position is daisy as he has been avoiding open campaigns for PDP. He was even said to have been campaigning openly somewhere for Buhari. But the population in Gombe is not something to worry about. For Edo, the PDP has always had a major share despite the fact that the state is governed by the APC.
Delta is also a PDP stronghold despite former governor Uduaghan’s recent defection. Rivers is automatic PDP especially with the supreme court’s judgement. Akwa Ibom would also be tight considering Akpabio’s defection but i’m confident the PDP will still carry the day,” he analyzed with utmost confidence.